Kalshi: Regulated Prediction Market for Event Trading
Kalshi is a US-regulated prediction market where users trade on the outcome of real-world events through event contracts. Each market is based on a clear yes-or-no question, and prices reflect the probability of outcomes using real-time market data. It’s widely used to track expectations around economic indicators, politics, and financial events.
Short history
Kalshi launched as a fully regulated prediction market focused on real-world event outcomes.
Founded in 2018 and approved by the CFTC, Kalshi introduced a legal framework for trading event contracts in the US. It gained traction by offering markets on inflation, interest rates, elections, and economic indicators, where prices reflect real-time probabilities based on trader activity. As the first federally regulated prediction market in the US, Kalshi has become a key source of structured data on market expectations and event forecasting.
What Sets Kalshi Apart
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Kalshi Market listings & metadata
- List active markets currently open/trading on Kalshi
- List past markets (closed/resolved) on Kalshi
- Stable market_id identifiers suitable for storage + joins
- Market title + description (what the market is about)
- Outcomes (YES/NO and multi‑outcome where applicable) + market status (open/closed/resolved)
Latest Market Activity
- Latest trade per market/outcome (price, size, timestamp)
- Latest top-of-book quote (best bid/ask + sizes)
- Latest price view suitable for UI “current probability” display
- Latest volume / activity signals as reflected in recent trades
- Timestamping fields to support ordering + latency checks (venue time / received time when available)
Kalshi Historical Trades and Quotes
- Full historical trade tape for custom UTC time ranges
- Trade fields for analysis: price, quantity/size, side, timestamp
- Supports replay-style analysis by walking trades through time
- Historical order book snapshots to reconstruct liquidity and market state
- Can be used to derive spread, depth, and order-flow proxies historically
OHLCV time-series
- Kalshi OHLCV candles per market/outcome: open, high, low, close
- Per-candle volume_traded
- Per-candle trades_count
- Multiple supported timeframes/periods (based on available period set)
- Clean, consistent structure for charting + backtesting
Order Book and Market Depth
- Current order book snapshot (bids/asks)
- Multiple price levels with aggregated size at each level
- Easy extraction of best bid / best ask and spread
- Depth/liquidity analysis: how much size is available at/near the mid
- Historical order books (T+1) for slippage, execution-cost, and microstructure research