Manifold Data

Manifold Market Data API

Access normalized Manifold market data through the FinFeedAPI Prediction Market API, including market listings, metadata, trades, quotes, OHLCV, and order book data.

Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market, where users create and trade markets covering politics, economics, technology, sports, entertainment, science, and virtually any other topic. Through FinFeedAPI, developers can access normalized Manifold market data using a consistent API built for live analytics, historical research, AI applications, and forecasting.

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What Is Manifold?

Manifold is a community-driven prediction market platform where users create markets about future events and collectively estimate their likelihood through trading.

Unlike traditional exchanges that determine which markets are available, Manifold allows anyone to create prediction markets on topics they care about. This produces a constantly evolving collection of markets ranging from elections and macroeconomics to artificial intelligence, startups, scientific research, sports, and personal projects.

Trading takes place using Mana (Ṁ), Manifold's virtual currency. Because Mana cannot be converted into cash, users can participate without financial risk while still receiving incentives to make accurate forecasts through reputation, competition, and platform rewards.

As traders buy and sell shares, market prices continuously update to reflect the community's collective estimate of an event's probability. These probability signals have made Manifold a valuable source of forecasting data for researchers, developers, and analysts studying collective intelligence and decision making.

Manifold at a Glance

CategoryDetails
Platform TypeSocial prediction market
Trading ModelCommunity-driven prediction markets
CurrencyMana (Ṁ) play-money currency
Market CreationOpen to all users
Market TypesBinary, multiple choice, numeric, polls, bounty questions
Probability ModelMarket prices represent implied probabilities
TopicsPolitics, economics, AI, sports, science, technology, entertainment, personal projects, and more
ResolutionMarket creator with moderator oversight

How Does Manifold Work?

Rather than focusing on financial speculation, Manifold is designed to aggregate knowledge from a community of forecasters.

Core mechanics

Anyone Can Create MarketsEvery user can launch prediction markets covering almost any future event or question. This open model produces a diverse ecosystem of markets that continuously expands as new topics emerge.
Trading Uses ManaInstead of real money, Manifold uses Mana (Ṁ), a virtual currency that every new user receives for free. Mana is used to create markets, place trades, subsidize liquidity, and participate throughout the platform.
Market Prices Become ForecastsBuying and selling shares changes market prices as trades occur. Those prices can be interpreted as the market's current estimate of the probability that an event will occur. As additional information becomes available and more participants trade, probabilities adjust to reflect the community's evolving expectations.
Multiple Prediction FormatsAlthough binary Yes/No markets are the most common, Manifold also supports multiple-choice questions, numeric forecasts, opinion polls, and bounty-style questions. Different market formats allow users to forecast a wide variety of outcomes using structures that best fit the underlying question.
Community-Based ResolutionWhen an event reaches its conclusion, the market creator resolves the outcome according to the predefined resolution criteria. In exceptional situations, moderators can review or overturn resolutions that violate platform rules.

What Makes Manifold Different?

Manifold approaches prediction markets as a collaborative forecasting platform rather than a traditional financial exchange.

Community-Created Markets

Instead of relying on a central operator to list events, Manifold allows its users to create new markets. This results in a significantly broader range of questions than most prediction market platforms, covering everything from global events to niche community topics.

Play-Money Forecasting

Because trading uses virtual currency, participation is accessible without financial risk. The play-money model lowers barriers to entry while still encouraging thoughtful forecasting through competition, reputation, and platform progression.

Diverse Market Formats

Many prediction platforms focus exclusively on binary contracts. Manifold supports multiple market structures, allowing users to forecast probabilities, numeric values, multiple possible outcomes, and other question types within the same platform.

Collective Intelligence

Every trade contributes new information to the market. As participants react to breaking news, research, and changing conditions, prices continuously evolve into crowd-generated probability estimates that can be incorporated into analytical models and forecasting systems.

Rich Historical Activity

Each market produces a history of trades, probabilities, liquidity changes, and participant activity that can be analyzed over time to study forecasting performance, market dynamics, and evolving public expectations.

Access Manifold Data Through FinFeedAPI

FinFeedAPI provides normalized access to Manifold through the Prediction Market API, allowing developers to integrate prediction market data without building directly against platform-specific APIs. All datasets use a consistent structure designed to simplify storage, querying, visualization, and analysis across supported prediction market platforms.

Market Listings

Active and historical markets with metadata and status.

Latest Market Activity

Current trades, quotes, prices, and volume signals.

Historical Trades & Quotes

Historical market activity for custom UTC time ranges.

OHLCV Data

Aggregated price history across supported intervals.

Order Books

Current market depth and historical limit order updates.

What Can You Build with Manifold Data?

Manifold market data supports a wide variety of forecasting, research, and analytical applications.

  • Forecasting Dashboards displaying live probabilities across thousands of community-created markets
  • AI Applications combining prediction market signals with news, financial data, or large language models
  • Collective Intelligence Research studying how crowd forecasts evolve over time and respond to new information
  • Prediction Analytics measuring calibration, market efficiency, and forecasting accuracy across different topics
  • Trend Monitoring Systems tracking changes in public expectations surrounding technology, politics, economics, sports, and current events
  • Historical Research analyzing trading behavior, probability changes, liquidity, and market outcomes across large collections of prediction markets

Why Access Manifold Through FinFeedAPI?

Working directly with prediction market platforms often means adapting to different schemas, identifiers, and market structures. FinFeedAPI provides a unified interface designed for developers integrating multiple prediction market exchanges and forecasting platforms.

Benefits include:

  • One normalized API for multiple prediction market platforms
  • Consistent market identifiers and metadata
  • Standardized trade, quote, OHLCV, and order book formats
  • Access to both historical and latest market data
  • Simpler integration for research systems, analytics platforms, AI applications, and production environments

As additional prediction market platforms are supported, the same integration can be extended without redesigning your data pipeline.

Manifold Data

Explore the Prediction Market API

Use the FinFeedAPI Prediction Market API to access normalized Manifold market data, including market listings, metadata, trades, quotes, OHLCV, and order book data through a single developer-friendly integration.

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