Manifold: Play-Money Prediction Market
Manifold is a popular prediction market platform where users trade on the outcome of real-world and community-created events using play money. Markets are created by users around simple questions, and prices reflect the probability of outcomes based on real-time trading activity. It’s widely used to explore crowd sentiment across internet trends, technology, and current events.
Short history
Manifold launched as a community-driven prediction market focused on accessible forecasting.
Founded in 2021, Manifold gained traction by allowing anyone to create and trade on markets using play money, removing financial barriers to participation. It became popular for tech, internet culture, and niche event forecasting, where prices reflect crowd expectations in real time. Today, Manifold is widely used to explore collective intelligence and informal prediction trends across a wide range of topics.
What Sets Manifold Apart
Get Manifold Data via FinFeedAPI
Check Our Prediction Market API:
Market listings & metadata
- List active markets currently open/trading on Manifold
- List past markets (closed/resolved) on Manifold
- Stable market_id identifiers suitable for storage + joins
- Market title + description (what the market is about)
- Outcomes (YES/NO and multi‑outcome where applicable) + market status (open/closed/resolved)
Manifold Latest Market Activity
- Latest trade per market/outcome (price, size, timestamp)
- Latest top-of-book quote (best bid/ask + sizes)
- Latest price view suitable for UI “current probability” display
- Latest volume / activity signals as reflected in recent trades
- Timestamping fields to support ordering + latency checks (venue time / received time when available)
Historical Trades and Quotes
- Full historical trade tape for custom UTC time ranges
- Trade fields for analysis: price, quantity/size, side, timestamp
- Supports replay-style analysis by walking trades through time
- Historical order book snapshots to reconstruct liquidity and market state
- Can be used to derive spread, depth, and order-flow proxies historically
OHLCV time-series
- OHLCV candles per market/outcome: open, high, low, close
- Per-candle volume_traded
- Per-candle trades_count
- Multiple supported timeframes/periods (based on available period set)
- Clean, consistent structure for charting + backtesting
Manifold Order Book and Market Depth
- Current order book snapshot (bids/asks)
- Multiple price levels with aggregated size at each level
- Easy extraction of best bid / best ask and spread
- Depth/liquidity analysis: how much size is available at/near the mid
- Historical order books (T+1) for slippage, execution-cost, and microstructure research